How Data Can Drive Better Litigation Decisions: Where to File and What to Expect

By Adam J. Feldman October 17, 2023

Lawyer pointing to a document as a client signs it at a desk.

Guest Post by Adam J. Feldman, editor of Empirical SCOTUS

Sometimes litigants do not have freedom on where to file cases. Venue is often dictated by where an action occurs leading to a complaint.  In situations where litigants have some flexibility on where to file though, there is room for strategic litigation decisions.  Even when they do not, statistics help them account for the possibility that their decisions will withstand an appeal. Below are statistics related to federal appeals court decisions on district court cases filed in the 12-month period ending June 30, 2023. 1

One simple metric of interest, total appeals terminated, reflects the relative caseloads of the 12 geographic circuits along with the subject matter-specific Federal Circuit. 2

The number of cases by circuit roughly parallels the circuit size so that those circuits encompassing larger populations have relatively more cases filed than those circuits covering smaller territories. While the graph above gives a general sense of the landscape of federal appeals, a more helpful metric for litigation planning is how inundated judges in the circuits are by their caseloads. The next graph shows the count of terminated cases by active judges for the same period of time.

Here we see that even though the Ninth Circuit is the largest geographic circuit, it only has the fifth highest rate of terminated cases by a judge.  The number of cases terminated by a judge in the Ninth Circuit is on average 253 fewer than those terminated by a judge in the Eighth Circuit.

Aside from the Federal Circuit which hears appeals by case type rather than by location of the appeal, the circuits primarily hear cases surrounding similar issues. It is therefore helpful to know the circuit’s breakdown by substantive case types focusing on the percentage of each case type within each circuit. 

The Ninth and D.C. Circuits for instance heard the largest percentages of administrative appeals. Ninth Circuit administrative appeals typically relate to immigration cases while executive agency cases are primarily conducted within the D.C. Circuit.  The First and Fifth Circuits heard the highest percentage of private civil cases, and the D.C. Circuit heard a much greater proportion of U.S. civil appeals than any of the other circuits.

Two other points that may be particularly helpful for litigants are reversal rates in the various circuits and more granular data focusing on particular issues. Although the U.S. Courts’ statistics do not break cases down by specific issue areas, we can remove cases from several of the case types including criminal, that do not involve civil litigants.  Based on these two items, the next graph shows reversal rates for private civil cases (and patent or trademark decisions from the Federal Circuit) over the 12-month period ending June 30, 2023.

The circuits’ reversal rates at the top of the graph at around 15% are markedly different from those at the bottom of the graph which are around 10% and below.

Bankruptcy cases are substantively different from private civil cases, so it makes sense to look at these counts and reversal rates in isolation.  Certain circuits did not review a statistically significant number of bankruptcy decisions so their reversal rates are not shown.

The Third and Eleventh Circuits reversal rates in bankruptcy cases far exceed those for the other circuits. Looking at these numbers as distinct from the private civil cases also prevents either type of decision from throwing off the reversal rates from the other type.

Statistical information like this can help paint a clearer picture of a litigation landscape. Litigants can use it to make strategic decisions to the extent that they have flexibility of where to file. These statistics also provide litigants with more clarity for their expectations of likelihood that a trial court decision will be overturned.  This can also help companies with regular litigation before one of more judicial district(s) plan for whether or not to appeal and for what to expect from an appeal.  With the right set of data and tools, one can further break these numbers down by specific judge, more particular issues, or within other dimensions. 

Adam Feldman is the editor of Empirical SCOTUS , a blog that conducts data analysis of the United States Supreme Court, and the Principal of Optimized Legal, a legal data/statistical consultancy. He is also an adjunct professor of political science and public law at California State University, Northridge. You can reach Adam for specific data and analyses related to your own litigation questions in this and other areas.


1 Data for analyses below was provided by Judicial Business Statistics from USCourts.gov. All data is for geographic circuit courts and does not include the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals. The data relate to judicial business conducted between the end of June 2022 and June 2023.

2 DC refers to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals; FC refers to the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals.

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By Certum Team May 19, 2026
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Class action litigators who practice in the BIPA space received clarity in April 2026 following the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals’ decision in Clay v. Union Pacific Railroad Co. (“Clay”).[1] In a concise 17-page opinion, the court held that the Illinois General Assembly’s 2024 BIPA amendments, which established that BIPA damages should be evaluated on a per-person basis, should be applied retroactively to cases pending at the time of enactment. This decision is a setback for plaintiffs’ counsel who had invested heavily—in time and resources—in BIPA litigation as the next major vehicle for class action recovery. An overview of how we got here is below followed by a summary of the decision. History of BIPA In 2008, Illinois enacted the Biometric Information Privacy Act to respond to the “increasing use of biometric data in commerce.”[2] BIPA was intended to give individuals the right to control their biometric identifiers and information while providing a right of action and meaningful damages against entities that mishandled them. But one question quickly came to the fore: was a new claim accruing each and every time an employer collected the same information from the same employee? As one defendant argued, such a per-scan theory of claim accrual would create “potentially crippling financial liability” for employers who violate BIPA by “repeatedly collecting the same information in the same way.”[3] Recognizing the question’s importance, the Seventh Circuit, in Cothron v. White Castle System, Inc., certified the question of claim accrual to the Supreme Court of Illinois. During briefing, the defendant invoked Section 20—which sets the damages a plaintiff can recover “for each violation”—to dissuade the court from adopting its per-scan reading of Section 15, citing potentially astronomical awards. In a 2023 decision, the Illinois Supreme Court sided with the plaintiffs and held that pursuant to Section 15, claims accrue “with every scan or transmission” of biometric information.[4] The Illinois Supreme Court acknowledged the prospect of “potentially excessive damage awards,” but noted that concern is “best addressed by the legislature.”[5] Accordingly, the court concluded its opinion by “respectfully suggest[ing] that the legislature review these policy concerns and make clear its intent regarding the assessment of damages under the Act.”[6] The Illinois General Assembly Acts Less than a year and a half after Cothron, the Illinois General Assembly heeded the court’s call and passed an amendment that added two clauses to Section 20. The first provided that any entity that collects biometric information “in more than one instance… from the same person using the same method of collection in violation of subsection (b) of Section 15 has committed a single violation…for which the aggrieved person is entitled to, at most, one recovery under this Section.[7] The second added the same operative language for violations of Section 15(d).[8] Going forward, it was now clear that only “one recovery” was available per person (regardless of how many scans there were), transforming potentially excessive damages into more modest ones. But the legislature left one question open: should the amendments apply retroactively to cases already in progress? The Clay Decision According to the Seventh Circuit, Illinois courts have a simple decision tree when it comes to assessing retroactivity. First, did the legislation expressly indicate the temporal reach of the amendment? If yes, case closed. If not, then the court must assess whether the amendment in question constituted a substantive or procedural change to the law. Under Illinois law, a substantive amendment “prescribes the rights, duties, and obligations of persons to one another as to their conduct or property and … determines when a cause of action for damages or other relief has arisen.”[9] Conversely, a procedural amendment involves the “rules that prescribe the steps for having a right or duty judicially enforced, as opposed to the law that defines the specific rights or duties themselves.”[10] While the Clay court acknowledged that the distinction between the two can, in many different contexts, “be unclear,”[11] the court had no trouble deciding the case at bar for one simple reason: the “amendment to BIPA Section 20 is a remedial change,”[12] and “the Supreme Court of Illinois treats remedial changes as procedural, not substantive.”[13] Two features of the amendments were critical: First, the legislature located the amendments in Section 20, which governs liquidated damages, rather than Section 15, which sets the substantive standards for liability under the Act. Second, the amendments’ plain language “focuses on remedies,”[14] indicating that an “aggrieved person is entitled to, at most, one recovery under this Section.”[15] The court’s analysis was straightforward. For those BIPA litigants involved in currently pending cases, the litigation terrain just got bumpier for plaintiffs and more favorable for defendants. Plaintiffs’ settlement leverage in these cases has been significantly reduced. Nevertheless, with enough putative class members, BIPA cases could still be worth bringing, even if they are no longer as valuable. We will continue to monitor the ramifications of this decision. Notes: [1] No. 25-2185 (7th Cir. Apr. 1, 2026). [2] Id. at 3. [3] Id. [4] Cothron v. White Castle System, Inc., 216 N.E.3d at 921 (Ill. 2023). [5] Id. at 929. [6] Id. [7] 740 ILCS 14/20(b). [8] Id. at 14/20(c). [9] Perry v. Dept. of Fin. & Prof. Regulation, 106 N.E.3d 1016, 1034 (Ill. 2018). [10] Id. [11] Clay at 8. [12] Id. at 9. [13] Id. at 8. [14] Id. at 10. [15] 740 ILCS 14/20(b), (c) (emphasis added).