October 13, 2026
Why Lost Profits Is the Smallest Number in Your Case

This is the fourth post in Certum Group's seven-part series bringing our Trade Secret Litigation Playbook to the blog. It draws on Part IV of the Playbook, What Your Case Is Worth. Read or download the full Playbook here.
Ask a business owner what a trade secret case is worth, and the first instinct is almost always the same: what did we lose? It is the intuitive measure, and it is usually the smallest one on the table. Trade secret law rewards claim holders who think about damages more expansively than "our lost sales," and the gap between the intuitive number and the recoverable number is often enormous. There are four measures worth understanding, and lost profits is only the first.
Lost profits: what you would have earned
The revenue you would have earned absent the misappropriation — contracts you would have signed, renewals you would have held, pricing power you could have sustained. Lost profits require you to prove causation between the taking and the foregone revenue, which is where most of the work goes. It is a real number, but it is anchored to your own historical performance, and that ceiling is frequently lower than what the case is actually worth.
Unjust enrichment: what the defendant gained
This is usually the largest measure, and by a wide margin. Unjust enrichment captures everything the defendant gained by taking the shortcut: the R&D and engineering it avoided, the head-start value of reaching the market faster than an independent developer could have, the savings and margins it captured, and — in the strongest cases — disgorgement of the revenue its product earned because it was built on your secret. In software, manufacturing, and pharmaceutical cases, the avoided-time-to-market term alone can dwarf your lost profits, because it measures the defendant's entire economic benefit rather than your specific loss.
Reasonable royalty: the floor
An objective measure grounded in what the defendant would have paid to license the secret in an arm's-length deal. It is typically the smallest of the three, but it functions as a floor when lost profits are speculative and unjust enrichment is contested. Sophisticated claim holders do not treat it as a fallback; they treat it as an independent anchor that constrains how small the number can reasonably be.
Exemplary damages and fees: what willful conduct adds
If the misappropriation was willful and malicious, the DTSA and most state statutes allow enhanced damages of up to twice the compensatory award, plus attorney's fees.1 Willfulness is not a rhetorical flourish; it is a doubling, sometimes a tripling, of the core recovery. And the evidence that establishes it — an internal email, a board slide, a pattern of ignored warnings — is exactly the kind of material that discovery tends to surface. That is why intent belongs at the center of the case from day one.
The Versata signal
If you want a live illustration of how large the gap can be, look at the Federal Circuit's 2026 decision in Versata Software v. Ford. The trial court had tried to cap Versata's trade secret damages at a licensing-based model — essentially, what Ford would have paid — and zeroed out the rest as an undeserved "windfall." The Federal Circuit disagreed, holding that the DTSA's text expressly allows recovery of the unjust enrichment the defendant captured, even when that figure is far larger than any license fee. The message to corporate defendants is blunt: if you misappropriate rather than license, you assume the risk that the damages will dwarf what you could have paid. The message to claim holders is just as clear — the ceiling on your case is often much higher than your accountant's first estimate.
Why this matters before you file
Claim holders who engage a damages expert early consistently do better — not because the expert changes the facts, but because an early damages view changes three downstream decisions. It changes which counsel you hire, because the firms built for a $50 million case are different from the firms built for a $5 million case. It changes your fee structure, because a firm weighing a contingency needs a damages view to price it. And it changes settlement posture, because a plaintiff who can articulate a well-supported range anchors the negotiation, while one who cannot is negotiating against the defendant's number. The defendant almost always knows what you might get at trial. The only question is whether you do.
Go deeper with the Playbook.
This post covers one piece of a much larger picture. For the full framework — what the law requires, what a strong pre-filing case looks like, how damages experts value these matters, how counsel fee structures change your economics, and how litigation finance fits in — read Certum Group's Trade Secret Litigation Playbook, our field guide for business owners and the counsel who advise them: certumgroup.com/the-trade-secret-playbook.
And if you are evaluating a live dispute — or simply want to pressure-test what a matter is worth and how it might be funded — get in touch. A confidential conversation with Certum is free and carries no obligation, whether or not you ultimately seek funding. Reach us at certumgroup.com/contact-us.
Sources
1. 18 U.S.C. Section 1836(b)(3)(B) (permitting recovery of unjust enrichment not addressed in computing actual loss); Section 1836(b)(3)(C)-(D) (exemplary damages up to twice the compensatory award, and attorney's fees, for willful and malicious misappropriation).
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